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Dollar mostly higher as traders react to shutdown

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar traded higher against most of its major rivals during Wednesday’s Asian session as traders remained concerned about the impact a U.S. government shutdown could have on riskier currencies. 

In Asian trading Wednesday, EUR/USD fell 0.12% to 1.3510 after data out Tuesday showed that the final reading of the bloc’s manufacturing index came in at 51.1 in September, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, but below 26-month high of 51.4 in August.

Separately, Eurostat reported that the euro zone's unemployment rate hit 12.0% last month, while the August rate was revised down to 12.0% from 12.1%. Analysts were expecting a 12.1% September unemployment rate, which gave the single currency support. 

USD/JPY dropped 0.09% to 97.94 after the Bank of Japan said Japan’s monetary base rose to 46.1% lat month from 42% in August. Analysts expected a September reading of 45.3%. 

Dollar softens but trims losses on U.S. government shutdown woes

Investing.com – The dollar softened against most major currencies on Monday though it trimmed earlier losses as investors continued to avoid the currency on fears that Congress will fail to pass a spending package and avoid a government shutdown.

In U.S. trading on Friday, EUR/USD was up 0.01% at 1.3523.

The U.S. Congress must approve a spending package by the end of the day to avoid a government shutdown, and waning faith for a last-minute deal steered investors away from the dollar and into other safe-haven assets such as the yen earlier. 

Congressional Republicans and Democrats continued to spar over President Barack Obama's healthcare law, a bargaining chip to fund a spending package to keep the government running.

Republicans oppose the president's healthcare reform and want it delayed in exchange for approving a spending deal, something the Democratically controlled Senate rejected on Monday afternoon.

Gold falls as U.S. jobless claims report sparks talk of Fed tapering

Investing.com – Gold prices fell on Thursday after better-than-expected data out of the U.S. labor market rekindled expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin tapering the pace of its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases, which weaken the dollar to spur recovery.

Gold and the dollar tend to trade inversely with one another.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,324.70 during U.S. afternoon hours, down 0.86%.

Gold prices hit a session low of USD1,319.40 a troy ounce and high of USD1,339.60 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,306.20 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low, and resistance at USD1,375.10, last Thursday's high.

The December contract settled up 1.51% at USD1,336.20 a troy ounce on Wednesday.

Crude prices fall as report reveals U.S. oil supplies are on rise

Investing.com – Crude oil futures fell on Wednesday after official data revealed that U.S. inventories rose last week and caught many investors who were predicting a decline off guard.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at USD102.55 a barrel during U.S. trading, down 0.56%. 

The November contract settled down 0.44% at USD103.13 a barrel on Tuesday.

The commodity hit a session low of USD102.51 and a high of USD103.96.

The Energy Information Administration said that crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.64 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 20, defying expectations for a 1.13 million decline after a 4.37 million barrel drop in the previous week. 

Gasoline inventories rose by 217,000 barrels last week, exceeding expectations for a 143,000 rise. 

The data sent oil prices falling on concerns the U.S. is awash in crude.

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Dollar gains on U.S. housing data, sees Fed tapering soon

Investing.com – The dollar moved higher in U.S. trading on Tuesday after investors looked beyond a Federal Reserve decision to keep stimulus programs unchanged last week and prepared for such dollar-weakening policies to unwind in either in late October or in December.

In U.S. trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD was down 0.12% at 1.3478.

The dollar took a hit last week after the Federal Reserve left its USD85 billion bond-buying program unchanged — many investors were expecting the U.S. central bank to trim the total by USD10 billion or more.

Asset purchases aim to spur recovery by driving down interest rates, weakening the dollar in the process.

Afterwards, conflicting statements from monetary officials have made it unclear when the Fed will begin scaling back its bond-buying program sooner or later.

On Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed could decide at its October monetary policy meeting to begin tapering the USD85 billion monthly asset-purchasing program.

Gold futures settled lower for the second straight session as expectations have risen that the Federal Reserve will reduce monetary stimulus by the end of the year. There were also two large investment banks warned that they see Gold prices potentially moving lower, which also pressured metals prices on Monday.  Prices had been down roughly early Monday but pared losses after an HSBC report showed manufacturing activity at a six-month high in China, one of the world's largest consumers of gold.

On Monday, two investment banks warned that next year is looking pretty dicey for bullion. Citigroup analysts said gold will likely get a short reprieve from the Fed's decision to leave its bond-buying program intact. However, they said prices will push below ,250 an ounce before the year end, and that's a price they see sticking for next year. In another Monday call, analysts at Morgan Stanley said they expect gold will average ,200 to ,350 an ounce in 2014 before heading lower. It was news on Friday that really reversed action in Gold that had many scratching their heads just following Wednesday afternoon's Fed policy statement. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told Bloomberg Television Friday that there is a small chance of tapering bond purchases at the October FOMC meeting.  Prices on Friday had skidded .80, or 2.7%, on Comex.

On Monday, however, two senior Federal Reserve officials expressed disappointment with the pace of the U.S. recovery, with New York Fed President William Dudley saying the economy is too weak for the central bank to pull back its bond-buying program. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released late Friday showed that speculative traders increased their gross shorts ahead of the Fed announcement. Technical's for the week comes in like this for both December Gold and December Silver. For Gold, support comes in at 1298.2, and below there at 1264.2. Resistance is up at 1370.9, and above there at 1409.4. For December Silver, support comes in at 20.86 and below there at 19.93. Resistance is up at 23.08 and above there at 24.37. Please call or email me with any questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s GCZ3, Tuesday September 24th

Resistance#2-           1342.7

Resistance#1-           1334.8

Pivot# -                      1324.1

Support#1-                1316.2

Support#2-                1305.5

Dollar trims losses, stays weak on Fed support for stimulus

Investing.com – The dollar took back earlier losses stemming from a Federal Reserve official's defense of keeping stimulus programs in place on Monday though gains were short lived.

Comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on considerations to provide low-interest loans to euro zone banks gave the dollar some support .

In U.S. trading on Monday, EUR/USD was down 0.20% at 1.3496.

The euro softened and the dollar firmed after Draghi said earlier that the European Central Bank may provide financial institutions with a new round of low-cost loans known as long-term refinancing operations to ensure interest rates stay low and inflation in target.

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